It’s time for the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass, the best non-major championship on the PGA Tour schedule and strongest field in golf every year.
With the “fifth major” set Thursday-Sunday, let’s rank the 10 most likely winners of the Players Championship.
10. Tommy Fleetwood
Fleetwood is still searching for his first PGA Tour win. Odds are he won’t break through in a loaded field like this, but it’s impossible to ignore how well the Englishman is playing. Fleetwood hasn’t finished worse than 22nd since the Open Championship in July.
9. Hideki Matsuyama
Course history is fickle at TPC Sawgrass because of the water hazards and big numbers lurking around every corner, but Matsuyama consistently plays well here. The 11-time PGA Tour winner has seven top-25 finishes and four top-10s in 10 career starts at The Players.
8. Russell Henley
Henley deserves to crack this list after securing his fifth PGA Tour victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The American has four top-10 finishes in his past five starts, and he fits this golf course as an accurate driver and strong iron player.
7. Xander Schauffele
Schauffele would normally be No. 2 on this list, but it’s hard to trust him now. The world No. 3 missed two months with a rib injury and finished T40 in his return to action at the API. Schauffele is probably too rusty to win The Players in just his second start back.
6. Sepp Straka
Straka is a popular pick to win this tournament. The 31-year-old ranks second on the PGA Tour this season in greens in regulation percentage and 11th in driving accuracy, which is the recipe for success at TPC Sawgrass. Straka also has a win and six top-15 finishes in his past seven starts.
5. Justin Thomas
Is this the week Thomas finally snaps his lengthy winless streak dating to the 2022 PGA Championship? He has won at TPC Sawgrass, ranks fifth on Tour this season in strokes gained on approach and is hitting his driver as well as he has in years. Thomas should be in the mix this week.
4. Ludvig Aberg
Aberg has ascended to the elite tier of golfers after his win at the Genesis Invitational. The rising superstar has played stellar golf this season when he wasn’t dealing with an illness, and he finished solo eighth in his first career start at the Players Championship last year.
3. Rory McIlroy
McIlroy seems to be flying under the radar this week despite winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February. That’s partly because the Northern Irishman made peculiar equipment changes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and had his worst driving accuracy week of the season. A loose driver won’t fly at TPC Sawgrass, but McIlroy deserves respect as a former Players champion.
2. Collin Morikawa
Another week, another near-win for Morikawa. The American has finished solo second in three of his past six starts, adding to his nine top-10 finishes since the start of last season. Morikawa ranks second on Tour this season in total strokes gained and fifth in driving accuracy, so TPC Sawgrass sets up well for his elite ball-striking form. But can he finally close out a win?
1. Scottie Scheffler
No surprise here. Scheffler deserves the No. 1 spot as the back-to-back Players champion, but he isn’t the same dominant player he was at this time last season. The world No. 1 had just one finish better than T9 since he injured his hand cooking Christmas dinner. We’ve seen only six three-peats on the PGA Tour since 2000, and four of them came from Tiger Woods. No player has three-peated since 2011, but if anyone can break the streak, it’s Scheffler.
