Something has clearly gone wrong for him, and continuing to put him into high-leverage situations — or any situation — was not doing anybody any good. Not the Pirates. Not their fans. Certainly not Bednar.
It is a stunning development for him and the Pirates given how dominant he was between the 2021 and 2023 seasons. During that time, he made two All-Star games, led the league in saves in 2023 and was close to automatic when entering games.
His demotion on Tuesday should be a cautionary tale — in a couple of different ways — for teams when it comes to dealing with relief pitchers and high-end closers.
The first is that for as quickly as they can emerge into star-level players, they can just as quickly lose it and cease to be productive.
A strong bullpen can be a game-changer for good teams and perhaps even the difference between being a contender and a pretender. The problem is relief pitchers are probably the most volatile position in baseball. It does not take much for a reliever’s ERA to balloon up, and baseball history is full of pitchers that came out of nowhere to become dominant arms out of the bullpen.
Last year’s bum can be this year’s lockdown arm. Last year’s lockdown arm can be this year’s liability. You just do not always know when any of that is going to happen.
Bednar is one such example.
He originally joined the Pirates in 2021 as part of the trade that sent Joe Musgrove to the San Diego Padres. At the time, Bednar was a 25-year-old reliever who had only thrown 17 bad innings in the Major Leagues. There was still upside, and he was an intriguing arm, but he had not yet shown anything in the majors. Then he immediately became a force at the back-end of the Pirates bullpen and one of their biggest stars.
He just as rapidly lost that momentum.
The second lesson is that when you are a bad team and have an in-demand relief pitcher on your roster, you should probably try to sell high when the value is at its peak. Or at least strongly consider it.
The Pirates had that opportunity at the 2023 trade deadline when they were more than 15 games under .500, not really close to contending and an organization that had several massive needs. They probably could have had a decent haul for him in terms of young players and prospects but passed on the opportunity because he was still a high-end, extremely popular player.
Ever since, Bednar’s performance has rapidly deteriorated, his trade value is — for the time being — completely ruined, and there is no guarantee it ever bounces back.
Given how volatile relievers can be, and how randomly teams can find good ones, they should rarely be players that are considered untouchable on the trade block (especially if you are not contending in that season).
Maybe he goes to the minors, works on some things, regains his confidence and comes back the same pitcher he was a couple of years ago. If he does, the Pirates should act quickly and try to move him given the bigger, more important needs throughout the lineup.
There is just no guarantee that will happen.
